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Three-point estimate
Turns best, likely and worst into one figure, and adds the variances rather than the spreads.
It runs entirely in this browser tab: nothing you type is uploaded, and nothing here counts down, rings or records.
Settings
- Method
- PERT weights the likely case four times, which is the whole reason three numbers are asked for. Choices: PERT, The plain average, The worst case.
- Confidence
- How often the plan should come in under the figure, if the guesses were fair. A number from 50 to 99.
- Show the spread
- The variances add, not the deviations, which is why a plan is less uncertain than its parts.
How to use it
- Paste your text into the box above, or open a file.
- Adjust the settings beside it until the result is what you wanted.
- Copy the result, or save it as a file. The result updates as you type.
Questions
- Why is there no click counter or reaction timer?
- Because both are a button and a clock, and this page is a function from one text to one result. A reaction timer that measured a browser's own scheduling delay would be reporting the wrong number confidently, which is worse than not shipping it. All eight of the group's device tools are named on the hub instead.
- Does the break schedule remind me?
- No. There is no clock, no notification and no code here that could make one. What it does is write the day out in advance — work, breaks and lunch in the middle of whatever day you gave — so you can print it or put it in a calendar that does ring.
- Will the printed ruler be the right size?
- It will if your printer does not scale the page, which is what the hundred-millimetre check bar is for: hold a ruler against it. The drawing is an SVG whose width is stated in millimetres, so the size is in the file rather than in the viewer.
- Does the decision matrix tell me what to choose?
- No, and it says so on every result. It multiplies your scores by your weights, which makes your own judgement visible; a matrix that came out the way you hoped is a matrix you weighted. What it adds is how close the top two were.
Other tools for deciding
Decision matrix
Scores several options against weighted criteria and shows how close the top two are.
Pros and cons
Weighs the arguments on each side and says which way, or that it is too close to call.
Eisenhower matrix
Sorts tasks into the four quadrants and says when the second one is empty.
All fifteen tools